Temporal Analysis of Bael guda (Aegle marmelos) Prices in Central India
Pratibha Bhatnagar1, Rajesh Barman2
1Formerly, Head, Division of Social Economics, Marketing and Mensuration,
M.P. State Forest Research Institute, Jabalpur.
2Research fellow Division of Social Economics, Marketing and Mensuration,
M.P. State Forest Research Institute, Jabalpur.
*Corresponding Author E-mail: pratibhasfri1@gmail.com
ABSTRACT:
This research presents a comprehensive analysis of Bael guda prices in Central India over a 12-year period, spanning 2010-2014 and 2015-2021. The study delves into the intricate details of pricing dynamics, regional variations, and temporal fluctuations within the Bael guda market. Quarterly price data was collected from various markets, including regional and district levels, to analyze long-term market patterns and price trends. The research highlights the regional disparities in Bael guda pricing, with Shivpuri consistently emerging as the district with the highest average prices, underscoring the influence of factors such as local availability, demand dynamics, and transportation costs on pricing variations. Additionally, the study offers insights into the stability and variability of prices, with the 2015-2021 period exhibiting greater fluctuations, as indicated by higher standard deviations and coefficient of variation values. Furthermore, the research evolves price growth patterns, with remarkable growth rates in certain markets, such as Mandla, Dhamtari and Sheopur (M.P.). This comprehensive analysis not only enhances our understanding of the economic aspects of the Bael guda trade but also provides valuable insights for market stakeholders and policymakers, facilitating informed decision-making in this niche market.
KEYWORDS: Aegle marmelos, Medicinal plant, Price trends, Markets, Price variation.
INTRODUCTION:
Aegle marmelos belongs to family Rutaceae and it is considered to have many medicinal and nutraceutical properties (Kaur undated). It is commonly known as Bael or wood apple (Kaur undated and Kausik et al., 2019), bel, bil and Bilva (Bhatnagar, 2017), Bengal quince, Golden apple (Kausik et al., 2019) plant and is used in various traditional medicines. It is a medium sized tree (25-30 feet), a slender, aromatic tree, and it grows slowly. Plant has a short stem, flaking soft bark and branches are sometimes spiny (Jhansi et al., 2021).
Older plants have straight and stiff spines and sharp spikes of about one inch length. The leaflets are 4-10cm long and 2-5cm in width and are oval or lancet in shape. Leaves are further divided into 3-5 leaflets and mature leaves are having particular fragrance. Fruit is of diameter 2-4inches and are spherical or oval in shape. Shell of the fruit is woody and hard (Sekar, 2011).
Bael has significance for high medicinal, pesticidal and nutritional values. It could be regarded as potential kalpavrksh as every part of the tree is important and has some potential use. Its medicinal properties had been detailed in “Charak Samhita” (Pandey et al., 2020). It is aromatic and all parts of the tree are medicinally important like fruit, leaves, bark, root and seeds used in ayurved for treating various diseases. Bael fruit have high nutritional component as like mineral: (phoshorous, photassium, calcium, magnesium, iron, copper, zinc), protein, carbohydrate, vitamins (B1, B2, B3, C), fatty acid (Srushti et al., 2023).
The unripe fruits are beneficial in diarrhoea and dysentery. The ripe fruit is sweet, aromatic and cooling. The root bark and sometimes the stem bark is also administered in intermittent fevers. The unripe or half ripe fruit is regarded as astringent, digestive and stomachic. Used in the form of sherbet. Nowadays the gummy mucous substance surrounding the seeds is used as an adhesive and substitute of Jigat for binding agarbatties. Mixed with lime it is utilized as cement and the mixture sets firm rapidly. Its leaves are also used for religious offerings. The fruit is used in powder form or sherbets are made (Bhatnagar, 2017). This plant leaves are the causes of abortion or infertility in women (Kausik et al., 2019 and Rishi et al., 2016).
Aegle marmelos (L.) Correa] is native to India and is widely distributed throughout the country in 8 states such as Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, West Bengal, Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Uttaranchal, Chattisgarh and Odisha Globally it is also cultivated in minor scale in countries like Sri Lanka, Pakistan, southern Nepal, Burma, Bangladesh, Vietnam, Laos, Cambodia, Thailand, the northern Malay Peninsula, Java, Timor Leste, the Philippines, Fiji, etc. (Pandey et al., 2020).
In Madhya Pradesh Bael occurs naturally in Katni, Panna, Jabalpur, Damoh, Sagar, Shivpuri, Sheopur, Chhatarpur, Tikamgarh, Mandla, Balaghat, Seoni, Dindori, Raisen, Vidisha, Hoshangabad, Chhindwara, Betul, Narsinghpur, Shahdol, Umaria, Sidhi, Satna, Rewa, Alirajpur districts.(Bhatnagar 2015 and MP MFP 2005-06).
Generally Bael fruit are ready for harvest in April-May when they mature the color becomes yellow. But on most sites in the state, rural people start collecting fruits in February-March months when fruits are still unripe. There are two grades available in the markets viz., Bhatti and natural ripe. Collectors pluck Bael fruit before maturity and modify in ripe form by using in bhattti and boiled, both are available in the market (Bhatnagar, 2018).
METHODOLOGY:
The secondary data on wholesale market rates were collected from the MIS database of Van Dhan Vyapar which undertakes market surveys on quarterly basis in selected markets where Bael occurs in good quantity. Quarterly price data was averaged out to find the prevailing rates in different markets. Variations in prices for the period 2010-2021 were also studied.
Price analysis:
The main aim of the study was to analyse price trends and to identify variations and long term market patterns. Market surveys were done at regional and district level markets and price data was collected over a period of 12 years from various markets ranging from regional to district level. These prices were collected on a quarterly basis. The prices used for study are wholesale market rates. The price trend graphs were drawn for each market.
The criteria for assessing the price trend given below-
|
Annual Price change (in percentage) |
Price trend |
|
decrease |
Declining |
|
1-15% |
low |
|
16-30 % |
Medium |
|
31-51 % |
High |
|
above 51 % |
Very high |
To analyse price trends with a view to understand the pattern of growth, stability or decline of the species over a period of 12 years, price growth rate was calculated in percent.
Simple linear regression analysis was done with one independent variable and one dependent variable to find the direction of trend. In this study, the variables which were taken are the wholesale price of Bael as an independent variable ‘x’ and the yearly period as a dependent variable ‘y’. Thus, simple linear regression expressed as y=a+bx, where ‘a’ is the coefficient, ‘b’ is the intercept ‘I’, ‘x’ is the variable and ‘y’ is the predicted concentration. To assess the extent of year to year price variation in different markets, a coefficient of price variation has been calculated. Statistical analysis of results were done using MS excel. A sample of traders were interviewed to understand the present trade of Bael guda.
Market prices were compiled from 2010 to 2021. This data of regional and district level markets was (2010-2021) analyed with the following assumptions.
· Prices of medicinal plants have seasonal variations, hence for the purpose of present study the average price prevailing in the market during the year has been taken.
· Although many grades exist for Bael guda in the markets, for the present study, only one grade of the species has been selected.
· The market prices were deflated using the wholesale Price Index. This adjusted the inflation during the year.
RESULT AND DISCUSSION:
Table 1 and 2 presents a detailed price analysis of Bael guda across important markets in Central India over a 12-year period from 2010-14 and 2015-2021. The data reveals intriguing insights into the pricing dynamics, regional variations, and temporal fluctuations in Bael guda sale prices. This analysis is crucial for understanding the economic aspects of Bael guda trade and market.
Table 1: Statistical analysis of prices of Bael guda at different market levels (2010-14). (Rs./qtl)
|
Year |
Katni |
Dhamtari |
Mandla |
Betul |
Shivpuri |
Sheopur |
|
2010 |
1590 |
1460 |
1210 |
1610 |
2110 |
1880 |
|
2011 |
1680 |
1550 |
1490 |
1940 |
2350 |
2310 |
|
2012 |
2240 |
2030 |
1780 |
2130 |
2640 |
2290 |
|
2013 |
2050 |
2080 |
2150 |
2030 |
2790 |
3190 |
|
2014 |
2160 |
2450 |
2230 |
2550 |
2830 |
2980 |
|
Mean |
1944 |
1654 |
1772 |
2052 |
2544 |
2530 |
|
SD |
292 |
894 |
432 |
340 |
307 |
540 |
|
CV |
15 |
54 |
24 |
17 |
12 |
21 |
Mean market price of Bael guda from the year (2010-14), in different markets varied from Rs. 1944 /qtl in Katni, Rs. 1654/ qtl in Dhamtari (C.G.), Rs. 1772 /qtl in Mandla, Rs. 2052 /qtl in Betul, Rs. 2544 /qtl in Shivpuri and Rs. 2530 /qtl in Sheopur market (Table 1).
Table 2: Statistical analysis of prices of Bael guda at different market levels (2015-21). (Rs./qtl)
|
Year |
Katni |
Dhamtari |
Mandla |
Betul |
Shivpuri |
Sheopur |
|
2015 |
1880 |
1760 |
1850 |
2340 |
2500 |
2750 |
|
2016 |
1350 |
1990 |
1650 |
1880 |
2250 |
2400 |
|
2017 |
2200 |
1880 |
1330 |
1930 |
2350 |
2400 |
|
2018 |
2170 |
2060 |
1760 |
1980 |
2200 |
2480 |
|
2019 |
2900 |
2580 |
1920 |
2750 |
2820 |
2880 |
|
2020 |
3750 |
3500 |
2300 |
3450 |
2950 |
3050 |
|
2021 |
2350 |
2530 |
2280 |
2190 |
2660 |
2880 |
|
Mean |
2371 |
2329 |
1870 |
2360 |
2533 |
2691 |
|
SD |
768 |
604 |
344 |
567 |
288 |
264 |
|
CV |
32 |
26 |
18 |
24 |
11 |
10 |
Mean market price of Baelguda from the year (2015-2021) in different markets varied from Rs. 2371 /qtl in Katni, Rs. 2329/ qtl in Dhamtari (C.G.), Rs. 1870/qtl in Mandla, Rs. 2360 /qtl in Betul, Rs. 2533 /qtl in Shivpuri and Rs. 2690 /qtl in Sheopur market (Table 2).
Shivpuri consistently stood out as the district with the highest average prices of Bael guda over the study period in (2010 – 2014) with a mean price of Rs. 2544/ per qtl and Sheopur district with the highest average prices Bael guda over the study period in (2015 – 2021) with a mean price of Rs. 2691 per qtl. These price variations signify significant regional differences in Bael guda wholesale pricing. Such differences could be attributed to a range of factors, including local availability in forest and demand-supply factors, weather conditions and transportation costs (Table 1 and 2).
Standard deviation measures how spread out these values are from their respective means. Standard deviation between 2010-2014 period varied between 292-894 , indicating higher variability in the parameter. But during 2015-2021, a higher standard deviation, such as 768 in Katni, 604 in Dhamtari and 567 in Betul indicates that the data points are more widely dispersed from the mean, signifying greater variability in the parameter across that market.
The coefficient variation during the two periods was more during 2010-2014 varied from 12 to 54 indicating that there was more variation in prices. In the period 2015-2021, the CV ranged between 11 to 32, indicating that the latter period was more stable.
Fig1: Price movement and trend of Bael Guda (Aegle marmelos) in regional markets Katni (M.P.) and Dhamtari (C.G.)
Fig. 2: Price movement and trend of Bael Guda (Aegle marmelos) in district markets Mandla and Betul (M.P.)
Fig. 3: Price movement and trend of Bael Guda (Aegle marmelos) in district markets Shivpuri and Sheopur (M.P.)
The prices of Bael in regional and district level markets increased in 2010-14 from Rs. 1590 to Rs. 2160 (Katni), Rs. 1460 to Rs. 2450 (Dhamtari), Rs. 1210 to Rs. 2230 (Mandla), Rs. 1610 to Rs. 2550 (Betul), Rs. 2110 to Rs. 2830 (Shivpuri) and Rs. 1880 to Rs. 2980 (Sheopur) respectively due to high market demand.
In year 2015-2016 the prices of Bael guda declined slightly in all markets. After the year 2017 the price of Bael guda in all markets were found increasing (Fig.1 to 3).
Rate of increase in prices in different market:
The price rate of Bael guda was analysed for 2010-2021 period has shown high with the exception of Katni (48%), Dhamtari (73%), Mandla market (88%), Betul (36%), Shivpuri (26%) and Sheopur (53%). Highest growth rate was recorded in Mandla followed by Dhamtari (C.G.) and Sheopur (M.P.) (Table 3).
Table 3: Rate of increase in prices in different markets (2010-21)
|
Year |
Katni |
Dhamtari |
Mandla |
Betul |
Shivpuri |
Sheopur |
|
2010- 2021 |
48.0 |
73.0 |
88.0 |
36.0 |
26.0 |
53.0 |
Overall, all the markets from 2010-2021 have shown a slightly increasing trend as depicted in graph 1-3.
CONCLUSION:
Bael guda price analysis conducted over a 12-year period in Central India provides a comprehensive view of the economic dynamics within markets. One of the most notable findings is the significant regional variation in Bael guda prices. While Sheopur consistently commanded the highest prices during both study periods, the pricing landscape in Katni and other districts exhibited substantial shifts.
The data demonstrates that Bael guda prices experienced substantial growth between 2010-2014, driven by increased market demand for Bael guda. However, a slight price decline in 2015-2016 suggests that market conditions can change rapidly, and external factors can influence pricing trends. The insights gained from this analysis not only offer valuable information for market participants but also serve as a basis for further research and informed decision-making within the Bael guda trade and related sectors. These findings underscore the importance of continuously monitoring markets in Central India.
ACKNOWLEDGEMENT:
The authors acknowledge with thanks funding support received from Madhya Pradesh State Minor Forest Produce (Trade & Development), Cooperative Federation Bhopal in two phases for a project on Marketing Information Service for medicinal plants from 2011 to 2016 and from 2018 to 2021 from which price data of the species was generated.
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Received on 06.11.2023 Modified on 04.12.2023
Accepted on 22.12.2023 ©Asian Pharma Press All Right Reserved
Asian J. Pharm. Tech. 2024; 14(1):5-8.
DOI: 10.52711/2231-5713.2024.00002